The fact that they鈥檙e playing better lately makes it all the more maddening.
They had this in them all along?
But even with the Cardinals looking like the preconceived Cardinals 鈥 you know, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado actually hitting, Jordan Walker actually playing 鈥 there isn鈥檛 enough calendar to catch up. (and who鈥檚 to say they could keep it up, anyway?) The Cards entered Wednesday 70-69 and 5陆 games out of the last wild-card spot (with five teams vying for that one spot).
How did St. Louis get to this point? Underachievement. Sure, there鈥檚 been some overachievement, too (notably Masyn Winn, Michael Siani, Andre Pallante and, really, even Ryan Helsley, considering he鈥檚 having such a historic season). Alas, here are the top 10 underachievers in the St. Louis organization for 2024:
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1. John Mozeliak and the front office: Look, indisputably, these are smart baseball thinkers with access to stats we鈥檝e never even heard of. But it鈥檚 not working. Mo and his staff aren鈥檛 getting results. From 2016 to now, the Cardinals have four playoff wins. Not playoff series wins. Game wins. And they鈥檒l likely miss the playoffs this year 鈥 for the fifth time in nine years.
The Cards were terrible in 2023 and followed that with a lackluster 2024. Mozeliak, now with the title of president of baseball operations, got the credit for building the great teams from 2011-15 ... and should get the blame for what鈥檚 happening now. And from 2011 to now, the Cards are annually around 10th on the list of Major League Baseball team spending 鈥 so the problem isn鈥檛 necessarily the amount of money they鈥檙e spending but who they鈥檙e spending it on.
Some fans are angry. The rest are apathetic. And the visuals of the stadium are startling. The front office needs a refresh.
2. Nolan Arenado: He has the third-most singles in the National League. This distinction tells you everything you need to know about Nolan this year. The slugger is hitting but isn鈥檛 slugging. Quite simply, the Cardinals needed Arenado and Goldschmidt to smash baseballs. Arenado entered Wednesday with a .711 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS).
3. Paul Goldschmidt: Yes, yes, Goldy has gotten going 鈥 in his past 20 games, his OPS is 1.001 and his batting average is .342. OK, but in the first 112 games, his OPS wasn鈥檛 even above .700 (.677), and his batting average was .231.
For the season, yes, his hard-hit rate is still quite good. But his strikeout rate (26.9%) is his highest since his rookie year of 2011. And his walk rate (7.2%) has never been lower. Alec Burleson sure profiles well as the 2025 first baseman.
4. The three starting pitchers signed: As the Cards started this season, I described their starters as one guy who makes you say 鈥淥h!鈥 鈥 and four guys who make you say 鈥淥h?鈥
Well, even the exclamation point of the rotation has curved at times into a question mark. Sonny Gray entered Wednesday鈥檚 start with a 3.96 ERA and an ERA+ of 107 鈥 his lowest mark since 2018. Gray鈥檚 ERA in July and August (10 starts) is 5.40 鈥 and that鈥檚 literally the same July and August ERA of Kyle Gibson.
Lance Lynn has been hurt the past month. And while Lynn鈥檚 ERA of 4.06 is acceptable for a non-No. 1 starter, he wasn鈥檛 quite the innings eater St. Louis anticipated. He鈥檚 only gone six innings or more in six of his 21 starts.
5. Nolan Gorman: How rough has the Cardinals鈥 season been? Last year鈥檚 home run leader is now in the minors, yet he鈥檚 only fifth on the list of underachievers. What a mess this was.
I was high on Gorman 鈥 wrote he鈥檇 crack 35 homers. He鈥檚 got 19 and now plays for Memphis. He was striking out at a historic rate 鈥 no player with at least 400 plate appearances has a worse strikeout rate than Gorman (37.6%) this season.
6. Turner Ward and the hitting staff: The hitting coach is beloved by many players 鈥 you can see it in their interactions in the dugout. But again, just like with Mozeliak, it鈥檚 about results.
So many Cardinals are having down offensive years. And the strategies Ward implements for the Cards to hit with runners in scoring position do not work well. It鈥檚 gobsmacking how poorly the Cardinals produce. In fact, with RISP, the Cardinals trail every team except the White Sox in homers and OPS 鈥 and the White Sox don鈥檛 even really count as a MLB team.
7. Jordan Walker: Ward and the hitting staff couldn鈥檛 unlock Walker. Jordan kept hitting ground balls, so the team sent him to the minors until recently. Yes, if the Cards had just kept playing Walker, perhaps he would鈥檝e found his groove. But Walker put himself in that situation with a .155 average in his first 58 at-bats before being sent down.
The Cardinals thought Walker would be a key bat in the lineup; instead, he was that for the Memphis Redbirds.
8. Miles Mikolas: There are 62 MLB starting pitchers who have enough innings to qualify for statistical categories. Mikolas has the 61st-best ERA. His 5.27 is only better than Patrick Corbin鈥檚 5.41. Mikolas had a 4.78 ERA last year, so it鈥檚 not like we expected All-Star Mikolas in 2024, but even with the bar set low, he鈥檚 underachieved.
9. Gary LaRocque and the player development staff: LaRocque is the longtime director of this department — and there were some great years (heck, Mozeliak’s front office and player development staff was so renowned, the author Howard Megdal wrote a book about it in 2016). But the Cardinals currently have the 19th-best farm system per . And last year at this time, it was ranked 22nd.
It was glaring this summer when the Cardinals needed a starter to fill in ... and there wasn鈥檛 one ready in the minors.
10. Giovanny Gallegos: From 2019-23, he was a regular out of the bullpen. Yes, the Cards entered 2024 with multiple guys earmarked for high-leverage situations than Gallegos would get. But still, he pitched pathetically, logging a 6.53 ERA in 20 appearances before the Cards let him go.
He never had a walk rate higher than 2.7 per nine innings 鈥 but this year, it was 4.4. He even allowed three runs and didn鈥檛 record an out in the May 5 game, earning the loss against ... the White Sox.