Look, I don鈥檛 want this whole thing to be rosy. Part of why the Cardinals entered Monday at .500 鈥 and 10 games out of first place 鈥 is because Nolan Arenado hasn鈥檛 been Nolan Arenado.
Everyone 鈥 the team, the fans, the media, Arenado himself 鈥 expected Nolan to have a strong season. He was paid to do so. And his track record suggested he would. Yet by July 12, Arenado had an an on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of just .693 (and only eight homers).
But swing by swing this late summer, Arenado has reestablished himself as an offensive threat. Is it all too late? Probably. The Cardinals would need a jaw-dropping run to make the playoffs, like in 2021, when manager Mike Shildt鈥檚 club won 17 straight September games.
But with Shildt鈥檚 Padres in town for four games this week, at least Arenado doesn鈥檛 look cooked. Paul Goldschmidt sure does. But Arenado entered Monday with a streak of 24 consecutive games reaching base safely, while hitting .323 during that stretch. This is rather reassuring, considering Arenado, 33, is under contract through 2027.
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So what鈥檚 changed in the batter鈥檚 box?
He had dealt with arm and elbow injuries in previous months, but recently, his bat speed has increased 鈥 and his offensive numbers have improved.
For the 2024 season, Baseball Savant began tracking bat speed. It鈥檚 pretty fascinating. The league average for average bat speed is 71.5 mph. Well, for the season, Arenado鈥檚 average bat speed is 70.8 mph (ranked 146th in Major League Baseball).
Since July 13, however, Arenado鈥檚 average bat speed is 72.1 mph (91st but still a significant uptick 鈥 and has him above the league average).
And check this out: So they call any swing 75 mph or faster a 鈥渇ast swing.鈥 For the season, Arenado鈥檚 fast-swing average is 14.4% (133rd in MLB), but since July 13, it鈥檚 23.9% (94th).
鈥淚鈥檓 just getting in a better position to hit, working on a lot of different things,鈥 Arenado said. 鈥淵ou know, the best players are moving fast 鈥 their bat speed is usually pretty high. So I鈥檓 just trying to get back to that.鈥
And the biggest upswing regarding his swing? Baseball Savant categorized that 89.9% of Arenado鈥檚 swings this year have been 鈥渃ompetitive鈥 (209th). But since July 13? It鈥檚 been 92.4% of his swings (30th!).
鈥淵eah, he is taking much better at-bats,鈥 Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said. 鈥淲hen you look at bat speed, people immediately go to age. Sometimes the sequencing of your body doesn鈥檛 allow for maximal output. And when he is right and firing the way he needs to, it allows for better bat speed 鈥 and then better exit (velocity) and better results. So he is getting closer and closer to where he wants to get offensively, and it shows.鈥
Now, swing speed doesn鈥檛 guarantee success. After all, guess who else has a 72.1 mph average bat speed since July 13? Goldschmidt. And Goldy hit .218 in that stretch with a .690 OPS. But Arenado has found more success with an uptick in swing speed.
For the season, Arenado is hitting .273 with 14 homers and a .729 OPS (for context, the league-average OPS is .714 鈥 and after his rookie year, Arenado鈥檚 lowest full-season OPS ever was .774).
Since July 13, though, Arenado is hitting .296 in 36 games, with six homers and a .816 OPS.
This includes the homer against Milwaukee last Wednesday 鈥 a walk-off, extra-inning grand slam.
Now, part of Arenado鈥檚 game over his great career has been his power. The lack of power in 2024 has been astounding 鈥 and concerning. From 2014-23, Arenado鈥檚 home run rate was 5.3%. This year, it鈥檚 2.7% (and last year was 4.3%). And his doubles are down. His average exit velocity is in the sixth percentile in Major League Baseball (that is not good). Overall, he鈥檚 become a prolific singles hitter (and hey, it鈥檚 good to be prolific in something, but knowing Nolan, he wants to slug).
In fact, he is tied with Pittsburgh鈥檚 Bryan Reynolds for the most singles in the National League (95), though interestingly, that鈥檚 eighth place in all of baseball.
Defensively, Arenado is fifth among NL third basemen in defensive runs saved and third in all of baseball in Fangraphs鈥 defensive rating system. There are other fantastic fielders at his position (Matt Chapman, Ke鈥橞ryan Hayes, Ryan McMahon), so it might be hard to regain status as a Gold Glove finalist 鈥 but at least Arenado is in the conversation.
From a hitting standpoint, sure, some of the Arenado aura is gone.
But at least he鈥檚 not petering out in 2024.
Imagine that storyline heading into 2025.