JEFFERSON CITY 鈥 Republican voters could play a pivotal role in helping to overturn Missouri鈥檚 abortion ban this fall, according to a newly released survey of likely voters.
The St. Louis University/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed the abortion-rights question, Amendment 3, leading 52% to 34%, with 14% unsure.
Four-fifths of Democrats said they would support Amendment 3, and so did 53% of independents and nearly a third of Republicans, 32%. The poll had a margin of error of 4%.
At the same time, Republicans running for statewide office were leading Democrats by double digits in the poll: incumbent U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley led Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce 53% to 42%.
In the governor鈥檚 race, Republican Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe led House Minority Leader Crystal Quade, a Democrat, 51% to 41%.
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Missouri Democrats hope the abortion question, as well as a measure to raise the minimum wage and guarantee paid sick time, will boost their chances at the ballot box this year.
But the results demonstrate the strength of the Republican brand in Missouri 鈥 even as a majority of voters polled expressed support for the abortion and minimum wage questions.
Steven Rogers, director of the SLU/YouGov poll, said that if he were a Democrat and the only thing he knew about someone is that they supported Amendment 3 and Proposition A, 鈥淚 would want them to turn out to vote,鈥 he said, adding he wouldn鈥檛 necessarily take that to mean the person is guaranteed to vote Democrat.
The poll, conducted over nine days earlier this month and prior to the Democratic National Convention, indicated that former President Donald Trump was ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Missouri, 54% to 41%. Additionally, 2% of voters were undecided, and 3% favored other candidates. This represents a narrower lead for Trump compared to his victory margins in Missouri during the 2016 and 2020 elections. ,
Fifty-seven percent of respondents favored a ballot question to raise the minimum wage and guarantee paid sick leave, compared to 30% opposed.
The data showed nearly a third of Trump supporters polled (32%) voiced support for the abortion-rights Amendment 3.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 a substantial number of people who are maybe a little bit more pro-choice, also supporting Donald Trump,鈥 Rogers said.
Meanwhile, 50% of respondents supported Amendment 2 to legalize sports wagering, with 30% opposed and 21% unsure.
Voters were also asked a range of questions regarding the state鈥檚 gun policy.
The poll found 85% support for a law banning minors from carrying guns on public property without adult supervision.
It found 79% support for, and 16% opposition to, a requirement for criminal background checks prior to all gun purchases, even at gun shows and private sales.
Missouri Republicans have shot down legislation to restrict minors from carrying firearms in public unsupervised. Democratic efforts to require universal background checks for gun sales have gone nowhere.
A separate question asked respondents whether they supported concealed carry permitholders being allowed to carry firearms on public transit and in places of worship.
Forty-eight percent of respondents voiced support for that, compared to 38% opposition and 14% not sure. Republican-backed legislation to do so has died in the Legislature.
Only 34% of respondents said they approved of allowing counties, and St. Louis and Kansas City, to enact their own local gun regulations, with 49% opposed and 17% not sure.